EVOLUTION OF THE YIELD AND SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIAL TOMATOES IN PANAMA (1969-2023)

Abstract

Industrial tomatoes are a strategic crop for Panama’s agro-industry, but they face structural and technological challenges that threaten their sustainability. This study analyzes the evolution of yield and national supply of industrial tomato in Panama from 1969 to 2023, organized into homogeneous technological phases. We employed a quantitative approach with a longitudinal trend design, using historical series on yield, harvested area, production, and number of growers from official reports of the Ministry of Agricultural Development (MIDA) and the Panamanian Institute of Agricultural Innovation (IDIAP). Three phases were identified: hybridization (1969-1984), productivity slowdown (1985-2004), and intensification (2005-2023). We estimated indicators of yield, variability, supply shifts, and technology gaps. Results show a sustained increase in national average yield, with a pronounced upturn during the intensification phase. By contrast, harvested area and the number of growers declined significantly, leading to a contraction in total supply. Despite technological advances, a gap remains between observed yields and attainable yields under the available technology package. We conclude that innovation has improved producer-level efficiency, but has not been sufficient to sustain aggregate supply. Public policies should prioritize closing the technology adoption gap, strengthening extension services, and mitigating the sector’s structural contraction through integration strategies and targeted support to producers.